重新开始写东西了

为了延缓我日益退化的中文水平，是时候重新开始写字了。今天突发奇想重读我在香港的时候写的日志，居然有点小感动。想来在香港的日子的确是我二十多年中间无法忘却的一段经历，也是一个转折点。当时感觉整个世界都摆在我面前，就像眼前那片蓝海，等着我跳下去，再把我托起来。反过来看现在的路，怎么越走越窄了呢？今天，有人教我想起了过往，最初的梦想，当年的朋友，他们在哪里呀？

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The Story of Cap and Trade (转于哥本哈根气候大会前)

Here is the vedio "The Story of Cap and Trade":
http://www.storyofstuff.com/capandtrade/

And here is some different opinion:
Cataloguing the Errors in "The Story of Cap and Trade"
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/010840.html

在意大利唱单身情歌？（转自ftchinese.com）

这个不能不转，确实是我身边发生着的事。这个潮湿的冬天，在某处独自喝着卡布其诺的朋友，祝你们好运！

前几天喝卡布其诺喝坏了肚子，原来实习单位的咖啡机已经好久没更换牛奶了

亲爱的经济学家，

我是一个32岁的美国女人，大约5年前搬到意大利，后来在意大利的一所大学申请攻读硕士。我的政治学学士学位给我带来的平均收入很低，因此我也没损失多少。

我的问题有两方面：首先是约会。意大利是全球老龄化第二严重的国家。在这里，30多岁的单身男性简直是凤毛麟角。除去与母亲生活在一起的男性，剩下的要么是烟鬼，要么比我矮，我就像生活在修道院里。

其次，我的意大利大学决定取消之前的决定，不再接受我的美国学位。我被迫要重修一个意大利的学士学位，这可能又得多花上一年时间。

我不愿拒绝另一个学位，但我还能再忍受一年意大利面食和被迫的单身生活吗？

我现在的计划包括，回国后前往旧金山，尽管我确实也可以选择在某个偏远的地方半永久性地为耐克(Nike)工作。或者我可以留在意大利；但如果我接下来的一年还是单身的话，用我妈妈的话说，我会孤零零地死去的。

喝着卡布奇诺哭泣的人

亲爱的哭泣的人：

你似乎决心留在一个食物、官僚作风和约会场景都不适合你的国家。沉没成本谬论影响了你的判断：你希望得到一个硕士学位、美食和一位意大利情人。然而现实并非像你想的那样，你浪费了5年时间。如果你想再浪费一两年，这不过是人之常情，但你错了。回家吧。

至于你的职业，忘记金钱吧：幸福文学提出，一段幸福的关系和一份安稳的工作更为重要。旧金山并不以单身可靠的男性过多而闻名，但这个偏远地方的人口统计状况却很棒，这里有许多合格的单身汉。你的新生活正等待着你。

Dear Economist:

I’m a 32-year-old American woman; I moved to Italy about five years
ago and later applied for a master’s programme at an Italian
university. Average earnings for my BA in political science are low, so
I wasn’t missing out on much.

My problems are two-fold: first, dating. Italy has the second-oldest
population in the world. Seeing a single thirtysomething is like
finding a unicorn. Eliminate men who live with their mothers, are
chain-smokers, or are shorter than me, and I’m in a convent.

Second, my Italian university has decided to reverse its previous
decision to accept my American degree. I am being forced to re-earn an
Italian BA, which could take a further year.

I’d hate to turn down another degree, but can I handle another year’s worth of pasta and enforced singledom?

My current plan includes going to San Francisco upon my return,
though I do have the choice of a semi-permanent job with Nike in the
middle of nowhere. Or I could stay in Italy; but if I spend another
year single, according to my mother, I will die alone.

Crying in my cappuccino

Dear Crying,

You appear to be committed to staying in a country whose food,
bureaucracy and dating scene do not suit you. Your judgment has been
clouded by the sunk-cost fallacy: you hoped to get a master’s degree,
great food and an Italian paramour. Things didn’t work out and you have
wasted five years. You’re only human if you want to waste another year
or two, but you’re making a mistake. Go home.

As for your career, forget cash: the happiness literature suggests
that a happy relationship and secure job are far more important. San
Francisco is not famed for its excess of single straight men, but the
demographics of the middle of nowhere are excellent, with many eligible
bachelors. Your new life awaits.

第一次在米兰过夏天

早就听说夏天米兰炎热暴晒，几近空城，连超市开门都三天打鱼两天晒网。

我还是很好奇，看看究竟能有多无聊吧。

前几天查Blue Note今夏的爵士演奏信息，为空。整个七月和八月？

 

 

追查摩根士丹利大恐慌的幕后黑手（转自华尔街日报）

 

2008年11月25日14:01

在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)申请破产保护两天后，一个爆炸性的传言称，另一家华尔街巨头摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已处于倒闭的边缘。那天是9月17日，交易员互相传言，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)已取消了对摩根士丹利250亿美元的授信额度。

John Mack

这个消息并不属实，但却引发了一轮看跌摩根士丹利的热潮。首席执行长麦晋桁(John Mack)痛苦地抱怨道，追逐利润的交易员散布了恐慌气氛。不过他缺乏关键的一部分信息：这些破坏性交易的幕后黑手到底是谁？

现在，《华尔街日报》看到的交易记录提供了部分答案。交易记录显示，华尔街一些最大的机构在大量卖空摩根士丹利，其中包括美林(Merrill Lynch & Co.)、花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、德意志银行和瑞银(UBS AG)。他们采用一种叫做信用违约掉期的复杂衍生工具进行了此类交易，这是一种保护贷款和债券免遭损失的保险形式。

《华尔街日报》通过对交易记录的仔细研究也发现，信用违约掉期在放大看跌摩根士丹利的气氛方面发挥了至关重要的作用，这种气氛又促使看跌该公司股票的交易员进行卖空。信用违约掉期和卖空之间的相互作用加快了公司的下跌趋势。

这一结论是通过研究相关交易文件和对华尔街高管、交易员、经纪人、对冲基金经理、监管人员和调查人员进行七、八十次采访后综合得出的。

对华尔街而言，信用违约掉期的销售多年来一直是一个利润金矿。但具有讽刺意味的是，在9月中旬动荡的那些日子里，信用违约掉期市场却令摩根士丹利自食其果。市场成为“2008年大恐慌”显而易见的晴雨表，引发了最终促使政府出手干预的这场危机。

9月17日还有一些机构进行了摩根士丹利信用违约掉期的交易：其中有加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)、瑞士再保险(Swiss Re)和King Street Capital Management LLC及Owl Creek Asset Management LP等对冲基金。

另一方面的压力也在加大。Third Point LLC等大型对冲基金卖空摩根士丹利股票的数量大幅增长。到收盘时，摩根士丹利股价下跌了24%，使监管机构更加担心掠夺性投资者正将目标对准了投资银行。

Andrew Cuomo

这种交易模式以前曾重创了贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos.)和雷曼兄弟，现在又让花旗尝到了苦果。上周花旗股价暴跌60%，创出了16年低点。

调查人员正在试图揭开是什么导致了9月中旬的市场灾难，摩根士丹利的掉期或股票是否存在不当交易。纽约司法部长安德鲁·库默(Andrew Cuomo)、驻曼哈顿美国律师办公室和美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)正在调查是否有交易员有意散布谣言，以操纵市场从中牟利。了解这些调查的人士称，有关部门还要调查交易员是否高价买进了掉期，以引发对摩根士丹利稳定的恐慌，从而从其他交易头寸中获利，以及交易中是否存在虚假报价和虚假交易。

目前还没有公开证据显示从事摩根士丹利股票和信用违约掉期交易的任何公司行为不当。大多数企业称，它们购买信用违约掉期只是为了保护自己免受与摩根士丹利进行的各类业务所可能发生的损失。一些公司称，相对于当天所进行的全部掉期交易，它们投入的资金并不高。

要想证明任何证券的价格受到了操纵非常困难。掉期市场是不透明的：交易是交易商之间通过电话和电子邮件完成的，没有公开的报价。

Erik Sirri

美国证券交易委员会交易和市场主管埃里克·斯瑞(Erik Sirri)上月在国会作证时称，掉期市场很容易受到操纵。在交投相对清淡的市场中，可以用很少的交易量来暗示市场认为公司的信用脆弱。他说，美国证券交易委员会担心掉期交易引发了卖空股票的交易。

刚进入9月的时候，摩根士丹利的状况相当不错。截至5月31日的前两个财政季度，该公司都实现了盈利。尽管摩根士丹利也投资了商业房地产和杠杆化的贷款市场，它不像雷曼兄弟那样存在大量同不良住宅抵押贷款资产有关的风险。麦晋桁当时相信，第三财政季度收益将强于预期。

9月14日雷曼兄弟准备申请破产保护的时候，麦晋桁在一封内部备忘录中对员工表示，摩根士丹利占据了“得天独厚的位置”，肯定能在当前困难环境下获得成功。就在第二天，公司接收了一批从雷曼兄弟撤离的对冲基金新客户。

但交易员担心接下来华尔街还会有哪些公司会倒下，市场上传言满天飞。据交易员称，对冲基金圈子里传言，作为濒临破产的保险业巨头美国国际集团(AIG)的交易伙伴，摩根士丹利有2,000亿美元资产面临风险。但这并非事实。摩根士丹利在提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中表示，公司涉及美国国际集团的风险敞口无关大局。

知情人士透露，竞争对手摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)的一些经纪人向摩根士丹利客户暗示，继续在摩根士丹利保留帐户是危险的。这些人士说，麦晋桁向摩根大通首席执行长戴蒙(James Dimon)抱怨，戴蒙最后采取行动终止了这类传言。知情人士说，德意志银行、瑞士银行和瑞士信贷也都纷纷向摩根士丹利的对冲基金客户推销服务。

9月16日，摩根士丹利的股价在当天交易中急跌，不过后来有所回升。一些对冲基金匆忙抽逃资产，他们担心摩根士丹利或许会步雷曼兄弟后尘，从而导致客户资产被冻结。为平息这类担忧，摩根士丹利当天下午4点10分发布了收益报告，较原计划提前了一天。

Colm Kelleher

摩根士丹利首席财务长凯勒赫(Colm Kelleher)在投资者电话会议上说，让市场恢复一些理性是非常重要的。坦率地说，事情的确有点失控，荒唐的传言一再重复。

瑞士银行分析师绍尔(Glenn Schorr)向凯勒赫询问有关摩根士丹利债券违约掉期保险价格急速上涨的事。据价格服务公司CMA DataVision的数据，每1,000万美元的摩根士丹利债券的违约保险价格升到了每年727,900美元，而9月10日时只有221,000美元。

凯勒赫回答说，某些人专注于信用违约掉期，而不是关注证券本身，暗示有些交易员在交易掉期合约的同时作空摩根士丹利股票，赌它的股价会下跌。

没法确切了解购买摩根士丹利信用违约掉期合约的投资者是出于什么动机。如果摩根士丹利的债券和贷款发生违约，掉期合约持有者就可获利。毫无疑问的是，有些掉期合约买家拥有摩根士丹利债券，他们购买合约只是为防范真的发生违约。

但对不持有债券的交易员来说，掉期合约也是一种不错的投机方式。在出现违约恐慌时，掉期合约的价格会上涨。因此，那些相信围绕摩根士丹利的恐慌可能会加剧的交易员，可能会利用掉期合约交易来快速谋利。

据知情人士说，在9月16日的不确定气氛下，拥有135亿美元资产的对冲基金Millennium Partners LP要求从其在摩根士丹利超过10亿美元资产中撤出8亿美元。另外，一位知情者说，Millennium还作空了摩根士丹利的股票，这是其对金融公司的一系列作空交易中的一部分。此外，这家对冲基金还买进了针对摩根士丹利股票的看跌期权。

知情者透露，Millennium负责人英格兰德(Israel Englander)对摩根士丹利一位主管说，我们不得不保护自己的资产。这不是个人的事。

这些看跌交易在Millennium的总资产中只占很小的比例。随着摩根士丹利股价下跌，它们也在升值。

同在9月16日，罗伯(Daniel Loeb)执掌的拥有50亿美元资产的Third Point LLC开始从摩根士丹利撤出5亿美元投资。交易记录显示，第二天，Third Point看到违约掉期价格大涨后也做了大笔看跌交易，卖空约10万股摩根士丹利股票。知情人士说，Third Point随后迅速结清这一头寸，获得不超过1,000万美元利润。

与此同时，对冲基金Owl Creek也开始要求彻资，最后它撤出了超过10亿美元资产。

9月17日上午，为对冲基金提供交易服务的Williams Trading LLC的主管戴维·“老虎“·威廉姆斯(David ‘Tiger’ Williams)从一名交易员那里接到消息，一家基金已将一个8亿美元的交易帐户从摩根士丹利转到其对手公司。这名交易员通过电话问那家基金的经理为何转移资金，得到的回答是：摩根士丹利要倒了。

再追问详情时，这位基金经理提到了德意志银行取消花旗250亿美元信贷额度的传闻。于是威廉姆斯四处打探，而市场上的各路人马都告诉他，他们认为这条传闻是假的。

然而，损害已然产生。当天早上7点10分，每1,000万美元摩根士丹利债务的保险价格，德银交易员的报价是75万美元。而到10点，花旗和其他交易商的报价已涨至89万美元。

随着谣言散布开来，摩根士丹利的股价大幅下挫。从10点的每股26美元跌到11点半时每股16美元。

在中午之前，信用违约掉期交易员开始要求摩根士丹利的债务保险购买方支付所谓的“预付点数”。“预付点数”指的是，为每1,000万美元的债务购买保险，必须至少预付100万美元，再加上一年的风险溢价。就摩根士丹利的债务保险而言，有的交易员要求200万美元以上预付价。

根据交易纪录，美林当天为1.062亿美元的摩根士丹利债务购买了保险。其他金融机构中，King Street购买了7,930万美元，德银购买5,060万美元，瑞士再保险公司(Swiss Re)购买4,000万美元，Owl Creek购买3,550万美元，瑞银和花旗各购入3,500万美元，加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)3,300万美元、AllianceBernstein Holding运作的投资基金ACM Global Credit购买2,800万美元。

第二天也就是9月18日的交易纪录显示，上述机构中有几家又在市场中现身。其中美林又为4,300万美元的摩根士丹利债务购买了保险，其他机构中加拿大皇家银行3,600万美元、King Street3,070万美元、花旗2,070万美元。

上述机构都闭口不谈购买这些保险的代价或是否从中获利。

AllianceBernstein的发言人约翰·麦尔斯(John Meyers)称，公司购买保险仅仅是为了对冲风险，并非因为看衰摩根士丹利。加拿大皇家银行发言人则表示，该行购买信用违约掉期合约是为了管理摩根士丹利的“信用风险”，并非看空摩根士丹利，也不存在抛售其股票的行为。

据知情人士称，资产规模达165亿美元的对冲基金King Street购买信用违约掉期合约，是为了对冲包括债券在内的摩根士丹利风险头寸，并未作空其股票。

德银和花旗的发言人也都表示，他们的掉期交易规模相对较小，一方面是为了保护在摩根士丹利的其他投资，另一方面是执行客户的交易指令。Owl Creek的发言人称，购买掉期合约是为当时手中的摩根士丹利抵押品投保，公司与摩根士丹利的业务往来仍在继续。

美林、瑞银和瑞士再保险均拒绝对相关交易发表评论。

交易纪录显示，随着摩根士丹利股价的暴跌，9月17日看空市场的投资者卖空的股票量飙升至3,900万股，是今年日均水平的9倍，此前两个交易日已经卖空了3,100万股。

9月17日，麦晋桁向员工发了一份备忘录。信中说，我知道你们所有人今天都在密切关注着我们公司的股价，我也一样……我们正处于被恐惧和流言控制了的市场中，卖空者推动我们公司的股票急转直下。

股票和掉期交易相互助长。当日下午，瑞士银行分析师绍尔写道，停止不理智的行为吧，我们需要暂停一下。他在当天的一次采访中说，股票和信用违约掉期使彼此疯狂，不应该让这种消极的反馈循环摧毁公司的价值。

据知情人士透露，麦晋桁忙着消除信心危机，他打电话给瑞士信贷投行业务负责人柯磊洛(Paul Calello)，问他是否知道导致掉期合约成本上涨如此迅速的原因。柯磊洛回答说他不知道。

摩根士丹利法律事务负责人、曾任美国证券交易委员会执法主管的林奇(Gary Lynch)打电话给纽约证交所监管部主管凯撤姆(Richard Ketchum)。据知情人士透露，林奇说他怀疑有人操纵摩根士丹利的股票，并问纽约证交所是否会支持暂时限制卖空交易的禁令。

麦晋桁先后打电话给美国证券交易委员会主席考克斯(Christopher Cox)和财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)等人。据知情人士透露，麦晋桁抱怨道，摩根士丹利股票的交易是不理智的、“恶劣的”，做出这种反应是毫无理由的。他说，美国证券交易委员会已经采取的防止某些过度卖空行为的措施力度还不够。

在当日发给员工的备忘录中，麦晋桁已经明确表示，他将敦促监管机构限制卖空交易。当这一消息传出之后，对冲基金经理们都火冒三丈。有些人取消了与摩根士丹利的业务，转而投向瑞士信贷、德意志银行和JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)等竞争对手。他们说，卖空交易是合法的保护和投机行为。

James Chanos

长期从事对冲基金业务的罗伯森(Julian Robertson Jr.)和知名卖空者沙诺斯(James Chanos)均是摩根士丹利的老客户，也都对麦晋桁的做法大为恼火。沙诺斯说，他听说麦晋桁发了这样的备忘录时，简直是怒气冲天。

当日股市收盘后，沙诺斯决定把他的对冲基金Kynikos Associates在摩根士丹利帐户中的资金撤回逾10亿美元。

沙诺斯说，发发牢骚无可厚非，可是发备忘录责怪自己的客户则完全是另一码事。他还说，事态的发展最终几乎导致二者之间长达20多年的合作关系破裂。他说，他的基金没有买进任何摩根士丹利的违约掉期合约，也没有卖空其股票。

其他担心自己公司股票的华尔街高管也不断打电话给监管机构。当日晚间8:15左右，美国证交会表示，将要求卖空交易者披露更多信息。次日（9月18日）晚间，证交会宣布暂时禁止金融类股卖空交易。

麦晋桁联系对冲基金客户，告诉他们说，并不是他一个人导致了这个限令的出台，他最关心的是要在流言漫天、交易动荡的时候给市场一个暂时的休整时间。

不过据知情人士透露，仅仅几天之内，摩根士丹利总计约1,100家对冲基金客户中就有四分之三以上的基金提出了撤资请求，将部分甚至全部资产从该公司撤回。尽管大多数客户仍在摩根士丹利保留了部分资产，但是该公司却无力同时处理所有的撤资请求，这进而加剧了市场的恐慌。

摩根士丹利的处境很不稳定。在9月17日的交易狂潮期间，麦晋桁就已经开始了与Wachovia Corp.的合并谈判。四天后，该公司转型成为一家银行控股公司，可以申请更多的政府资金。上个月，摩根士丹利从一家日本银行筹得了90亿美元的资金，之后又获得了联邦政府100亿美元的注资。

摩根士丹利现在必须调整经营策略，以应对一个避险意识更强的环境以及作为一家银行控股公司必须接受的更加严格的政府监管。本月早些时候，公司宣布将裁员约2,300人，占员工总数的5%。

摩根士丹利债务的保险成本已经从最高点回落，不过公司股票仍很低迷。上周五，公司在纽约证交所收于每股10.05美元，不及9月17日21.75美元收盘价的一半。

事情过去了一个多月后，麦晋桁在接受采访时说，他已经基本放弃追查导致9月中旬摩根士丹利股票卖空的原因了。他说，很难分辨哪些是流言，哪些是真相。

Susan Pulliam / Liz Rappaport / Aaron Lucchetti / Jenny Strasburg / Tom Mcginty

转载奥巴马胜选演说·文言版

 

引用

Let’s review some real Chinese

转载奥巴马胜选演说·文言版，不得不说，有才的人真多，中文真的很博大精深~~~

原文链接~http://thisisdongdongqiang.cn/archives/1577

〈奥巴马胜选演说·文言版〉
东东枪 译

 

Hello，Chicago!
芝城父老，别来无恙，

 

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
余尝闻世人有疑，不知当今美利坚凡事皆可成就耶？开国先贤之志方岿然于世耶？民主之伟力不减于昔年耶？凡存诸疑者，今夕当可释然。

 

It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen, by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different, that their voices could be that difference.
今夕之释然，皆蒙美利坚民众之协力——学塾祠庙之外，市井乡野之间，万千父老心焦似焚，苦待竟日，愿献一票之力。其中，平生未尝涉国事者，数亦不少，而今有此义举，皆因一念不衰——今夫天下，非同既往，愿发吁天之声，必成动地之势。

 

It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled. Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been just a collection of individuals or a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and always will be, the United States of America.
今夕之释然，皆仰吾国同胞之齐心——何谈贫富老幼之差、党社宗族之异，惶论发肤肌体之别、志趣爱恶之分。吾国既以“合众”为名，吾辈则更无疏离之意，红蓝二党并肩而立，数十邦州挽手相合，无分你我，共称一家，昂然于世，齐声一呼，天下乃有此释然。

 

It’s the answer that led those who’ve been told for so long by so many to be cynical and fearful and doubtful about what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
今夕之释然，皆因愤懑者之镇静，忧惧者之勇气，犹疑者之笃定——平素世间种种，消磨其志向，溃灭其梦想，而值此风云之际，除旧更新，当仁不让，倾力而动乾坤者，更何人哉！

 

It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this date in this election at this defining moment change has come to America.
俟之诚久，其志弥坚。幸天地明察，乃有今日，乃有此刻，乃有此一选举，乃有我亿万美利坚大好国民——吾邦之大变革，方得自兹而始也！

 

A little bit earlier this evening, I received an extraordinarily gracious call from Sen. McCain.
Sen. McCain fought long and hard in this campaign. And he’s fought even longer and harder for the country that he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine. We are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him; I congratulate Gov. Palin for all that they’ve achieved. And I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.
倾接参议员麦君凯恩电，虽未得晤，幸有一谈，其言谆谆，其意诚诚，鄙人感佩之至。选战期内，麦君劳碌几重，奔波几许，皆为国家计。诸般求索，时日良多，皆非余所能及。于国于民之惊人牺牲，亦非庸庸如吾辈者所可想见。以麦君之胆魄襟怀，能为吾邦所用，实国家之幸，万民之幸也。前途漫漫，其事未竟，余所盼瞩由衷者，唯共麦凯恩君、佩林君，及诸贤士比肩，会吾等之绵力，成吾邦之大业。

 

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart, and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on the train home to Delaware, the vice president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
乔君拜登，亦吾所感铭至深者也。竞选之业，艰险不足与外人道，幸有乔君之辅佐，其诚天可鉴之。乔君其人，素言恳辞切，意笃情真，盖尝经斯兰克顿街乡邻之提命，饱聆特拉华州父老之晤教也。他日余既登总统之位，乔君必当副之。

 

And I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last 16 years the rock of our family, the love of my life, the nation’s next first lady Michelle Obama.
拙荆米氏，追随鄙人凡一十六年，既为爱侣，更为挚友，既为吾阖家之基石，又乃余终生之至爱。鄙人尝自忖度，倘无贤妻若此，今朝阔论高谈于此处者，不知何人矣！

 

Sasha and Malia I love you both more than you can imagine. And you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the new White House.
小女萨沙、玛丽，余素深喜之。昔日为父尝与汝等言，此番选战若得一胜，愿购小犬一头相赠，待阖家乔迁总统府邸之日，偕汝等同进吾宅。今当胜负已出，既有一诺在前，必自践行不欺也。

 

And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother’s watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight. I know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
祖母大人虽已仙逝，料必有灵在天，俯察人寰，想应颔首开颜矣。吾奥巴马氏列祖列宗，亦当如是。今日今时，此情此景，鄙人追思之心，乌鸟之情，曷其有极！唯生死陌路，仙凡有别，虽怀反哺之心，而无答报之门也！

 

To my sister Maya, my sister Alma, all my other brothers and sisters, thank you so much for all the support that you’ve given me. I am grateful to them.
至若玛雅、艾玛二姐妹，以及吾家诸同胞，所惠我者，亦属良多，久沐恩德，此当拜谢。

 

And to my campaign manager, David Plouffe, the unsung hero of this campaign, who built the best — the best political campaign, I think, in the history of the United States of America.To my chief strategist David Axelrod who’s been a partner with me every step of the way.To the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.
大卫•普劳夫君，大卫•阿克塞罗德君，一为鄙人竞选事务之经理，一为鄙人国事韬略之智囊。余尝自喟叹，左右谋士，余所仰赖者，皆亘古未见之贤才。普阿二君，则更此中之翘楚。区区不才，有何德能，可得膀臂若此？当此功成之际，感荷之心，亦自拳拳。

 

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you.
至于鄙人铭之肺腑，须臾不敢忘怀者，则诸位也。盖今日鄙人之胜绩，实诸位之胜绩，鄙人之荣光，实诸位之荣光！

 

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington. It began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston. It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give $5 and $10 and $20 to the cause.
余素朴陋，虽有参选之心，并无必胜之志。谋事之初，银资乏匮，从者寥寥；起事之地，皆蔽寓荒斋，不在高阁；成事之基，无非寻常百姓，涓滴之献。

 

It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep.
It drew strength from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on doors of perfect strangers, and from the millions of Americans who volunteered and organized and proved that more than two centuries later a government of the people, by the people, and for the people has not perished from the Earth.
今日之胜，有赖一众热血青年，抛其家，别其室，不辞其苦，不计其酬，矻矻于此——“国中青年爱国之心已泯”之谬论，今可休矣！今日之胜，有赖壮志未已之诸前辈，无惧寒暑，行走奔波，劝说民众。今日之胜，乃数百万美利坚民众之胜，察其意，皆属踊跃为国，观其行，处处谨严有序，足堪告慰二百年前开国之先贤——民有、民治、民享之政体，未尝动摇也！

 

This is your victory.
嗟夫！此实诸位之功也！

 

And I know you didn’t do this just to win an election. And I know you didn’t do it for me.You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime — two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.
余知诸君之意非在此一选举，亦非在鄙人一身。盖瞻前路之艰辛，益知此任非同小可也。虽今夕欢贺于此，而明朝酒醒，大患仍自当前，不容有怠——两地烽烟熊熊而起，四海之内纷纷而乱，金融业界惶惶而不得宁。

 

Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us.There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after the children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage or pay their doctors’ bills or save enough for their child’s college education. There’s new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair.
是夜，饮宴笙歌之声不绝于耳，而异邦大漠群山中，吾国大好青年，兀自苦戍边塞，惝恍竟夜，性命尚未得安。吾国千万庶民，为人父母者，兀自惴惴难眠，所忧者，乃房宅所贷、病患之费、抚育之资也。至若吾国能源之耗，百业之兴，痒序之教，攻伐之术，怀远之道，亦皆吾等忡忡挂怀者也。

 

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there.
渺渺乎其远，如不可达，危危乎其高，若不可攀。朝夕岁月，焉得成就？余不揣愚钝，愿以四载韶华，付诸此业，胜算何如虽不可知，然昂扬必胜之奇志，成就伟业之壮怀，平生未之有也。君子一诺，其重何如，此地今夕，愿斗胆发一狂言——吾辈既在，其事必成！

 

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it’s been done in America for 221 years — block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
逶迤坎坷，份内之事。异见争端，料必有之。国中之政府，谅非无所不能者。余所秉承不移者，唯忠信矣。倘有危难于前，必无欺瞒于世。诸君言论臧否，纵悖逆相左之议，余必当洗耳以聆。于此之外，更当恳请诸君，不吝心血，致力报效，以振吾美利坚重兴之业。余亦别无他想，唯盼吾侪协力，延继吾国既肇二百二十一年之大统，汇涓滴之力，而成万世之业。

 

What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It can’t happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.
昔年冬日，余有志于斯，投身此业，屈指算来，倏然近二载矣。当此秋夜，追思反省，仍无溃退逃亡之意。选战之胜，无非一役之功，余梦寐所思矢志所求者，非在乎此。溯源究本，此役之胜，不过革世变时一大好良机耳。倘止步于斯，垂手而待，或无诸君倾力相援，则壮志丰功，无非泡影，诸般梦想，终必虚妄。

 

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of responsibility, where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves but each other. Let us remember that, if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers. In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people.
爱国之心，报国之念，吾人固有之，然逢今日之世，此心此念亦当一变——吾辈各执己业，益当各竭其力，各尽其命，非但为一己之利，而更期普世之荣。今岁，金融业界动荡多舛，细审观之，当可以之为鉴——实业之损，亦是金融之伤。可知，既在邦域之内，吾辈荣辱休戚，皆相与共矣！

 

Let’s resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let’s remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House, a party founded on the values of self-reliance and individual liberty and national unity.Those are values that we all share.
党争纷纭，阴谋卑鄙，愚鲁无知，皆腐蚀清白、惑乱政局之弊也，其缘由已久，余今愿与诸君协力，共灭除之。昔年曾有此郡先贤，执共和党之帜，而掌总统府之权。自强独立，自由统一等信念，皆斯人之所倡，亦吾辈之所宗。

 

And while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, we are not enemies but friends. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection.
今岁选战，吾民主党人幸有一胜，然谦逊和合之心未尝少减。余素信服者，乃山河破碎之际，林肯总统之言——“既是至亲，终不为敌。虽弩张剑拔，而血脉未尝断，情义不少减。”

 

And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too.
固然，仍有四方志士，不为鄙人所动，另有高明之选。虽终悭此一票之缘，然诸君高论，余亦声声在耳，字字在心。倘能得诸君之援手，鄙人幸甚。他日待余总而统之，亦必不另眼以待也。

 

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces, to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of the world, our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand.
吾邦民众，散居天下，各安其命，而其志一也。吾邦鼎盛之势，今已乍现锋芒。

 

To those — to those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security: We support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright: Tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope.
至于心怀叵测，与世人为仇、与天下为敌者，吾邦猛志常在，彼等必取灭亡。心思纯良，久慕大同者，吾辈当倾力以助，鼎力相援。犹疑未定，不知吾自由之邦兴衰如何者，吾辈愿以今日盛况以告之——美利坚之所以谓之 “美”者，非刀兵之强，金银之众，实民主、自由、机遇、梦想之美也！

 

That’s the true genius of America: that America can change. Our union can be perfected. What we’ve already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
天自有道，地自有德，恩赋吾邦无上异禀——无他，唯变而已矣。美利坚变革不怠，合众国日趋尽善。当以过往先贤之伟绩，助吾侪今日之雄心，开子孙万世之辉光。

 

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight’s about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing: Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
今岁选战，多开亘古之先，屡传千秋佳话。感我至深者，亚特兰大之老妪安•尼克松•库帕也——库氏之一票，于数百万美利坚民众之选票无异，其所以引人称奇者，其人今岁高龄一百有六矣。

 

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons — because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
当其父辈之时，天道不彰，黑人为奴。库氏其生也不逢时，汽车尚不行于道，飞机未曾起于空，库氏既属黑人，又系女流，票选一事，概无瓜葛。

 

And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America — the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
今日今时，回溯库氏百岁之涯，但见吾邦先贤屡败屡战，且退且进，悲欣交集，甘苦杂陈。幸而正道存焉，壮志存焉，曰：吾辈既在，无所不能。

 

At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
万马齐喑，其事堪哀，吾邦女界怒而起，愤而争，苦战不歇，历数十载。幸哉库氏，以百岁之高龄，终得亲见女流自立于世，重获天赋之权——吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs, a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
当百业萧条，国人绝望哀鸣之际，库氏亲见吾美利坚出旷世之新政，挽狂澜于既倒，扶大厦之将倾，退畏惧之势，扶奋勇之心，终至人各有位，民心乃安——吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
当吾国良港遭袭，天下桀纣当道，暴政肆虐之时，库氏亲见豪杰群起，民主不衰——吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.
蒙哥马利公车之罢辍，伯明翰城黑人之群起，塞尔玛城血雨腥风之事，库氏般般亲历。更曾亲聆亚特兰大传教之士振臂登高之呼——“吾等必胜！”诚哉斯言！吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
俟科学昌明于世，创想通贯一时，既登广寒之阙，又溃柏林之墙。洋洋乎！有百年如是，乃见今岁选战中，库氏之一票。浩浩兮！一百零六载交锋更迭，方有美利坚今日之变革——吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves — if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
转眼兴亡过手，而今迈步从头。追昔抚今，不禁扪心而问——俟再历百年岁月，倘吾等后辈儿孙，亦有得享高寿如库氏者，复可见何等之变数？吾辈今日之功，他年可得而见之乎？

 

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.
所谓天命时运，莫过于此 ——当为吾邦万民造安身立命之业，为吾辈儿孙启各显雄才之门，为寰宇各国创太平静好之世，为吾等壮志赋千秋不灭之元神。吾邦立国之本，必将光耀于天下。万千同胞，当如一人，一息尚存，梦想不灭。纵有世人旁观在侧，而疑窦生焉，吾辈亦当以千秋不易之训共答之曰——吾辈既在，无所不能！

 

Thank you. God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.
拜谢诸君。愿天佑吾民，天佑吾邦。